World Population Will Reach 9.6 Billion By 2050

Date: Jun-15-2013Over the next decade the world population is expected to increase by 1 billion and by 2050 experts estimate it will reach 9.6 billion.

The United Nations report, titled "World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision", states that most of this growth will occur in developing nations, especially in Africa.

The Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, Wu Hongbo, said:

"Although population growth has slowed for the world as a whole, this report reminds us that some developing countries, especially in Africa, are still growing rapidly."

Developed nations won't experience the same increase in population that developing countries will. In fact, the population of the rich nations will stay at around 1.3 billion until 2050, whereas the population of the 49 poorest countries is estimated to double from 900 million to 1.8 billion.

The data come from a comprehensive analysis of demographic information from 233 countries around the world.
High fertility rates in sub-Saharan Africa
The projected total population is higher in this report compared to previous estimates because of new information regarding fertility levels.

In several sub-Saharan African countries with extremely high-fertility rates, the researchers estimated that the average number of children per woman had to be adjusted by over 5 per cent.

Sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing phenomenal population growth since the beginning of the 20th Century.

The Director of the Population Division in the UN's Department of Economic and Social Affairs, John Wilmoth, during a press conference in New York, said that "in some cases, the actual level of fertility appears to have risen in recent years; in other cases, the previous estimate was too low."

Fertility rates across the world - the darker the color the higher the fertility rate.
Although there has been a significant decline in the average number of children in large developing nations such as India, China, Brazil, and Indonesia, experts say that rapid growth is expected in other countries with high levels of fertility, such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo - countries with more than 5 children per woman.

The increase in fertility rates over the next thirty years could have a huge impact on population size and distribution, added Mr. Wilmoth.

By 2028 India and China are expected to have populations of over 1.45 billion each. After 2028, the experts predict that the population in China will slowly decrease while India's will continue to grow, this is despite efforts to curb population growth in India. For example, the country recently adopted unconventional approaches to slow birth rates, such as cash incentive payments.
Aging European population and increased life expectancy
The report estimates that Europe's population will decrease by 14 percent, adding that the continent will need to provide care and support for its rapidly aging population. In fact,  the US is the only "major economic power" with a total fertility rate high enough to maintain its workforce and economic prosperity as the population ages, according to a Population Reference Bureau report

Karolinska Institutet's renowned professor, Hans Rosling, discusses the challenges facing Ageing Europe

Life expectancy will likely increase in both developed and developing countries in the next few decades. The report projects that in the period 2045-2050, global life expectancy will reach 76 years and in 2095-2100 it will reach 82 years.

Towards the end of this century people will be living approximately 89 years in developed nations and 81 years in developing nations.

A study published in The Lancet said that if current life expectancy trends continue, over half of babies born in wealthy nations today will live to at least 100 years.

Written by Joseph Nordqvist

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